Forecasting and Monetary Policy

Time: 23-24 March 2009
Venue: Berlin branch of the Bundesbank, Germany

Central banks now routinely release, and comment, on forecasts for macroeconomic and financial variables, using a variety of methodologies in preparing and presenting forecasts. Some publish a staff forecast, others rely on professional forecasts, while still other forecasts may be from the monetary policy committee or its members. Central banks also compete with forecasts made by financial institutions and private foundations or research organizations, with potential implications for their credibility and the monetary policy environment. Against this background, the organizers are interested in empirical and methodological papers that examine forecast uncertainty, the use and construction of fan charts, the performance of forecasts from various modeling approaches (e.g., DSGE versus VAR type models), forecast comparisons and combinations, the debate about whether central bankers should release their own forecasts, whether conditional forecasts of the future policy track are advisable and current experiences with such forecasts. Additionally, as there are growing concerns over central banks’ ability to anchor inflationary expectations, the organizers are also keen on papers that are concerned with long-run forecasts of inflation. Finally, they are also interested in papers that examine the record of institutional forecasters, in particular Europe and Germany.

Organized by:

• Helge Berger, Chair of Monetary Economics, Freie Universität , Berlin
• Jörg Breitung, Research Professor of the Deutsche Bundesbank, University of Bonn
• Heinz Herrmann, Head of the Research Centre, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Pierre L. Siklos, Wilfrid Laurier University, Viessmann European Research Centre, Waterloo, Canada, and Bundesbank Professor, Freie Universität, Berlin

Speakers:

• Professor Axel Weber, President, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Professor Francis X. Diebold, Joseph M. Cohen Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
• Professor Jon Faust, Johns Hopkins University

For more info http://www.wlu.ca/...
Email psiklos@wlu.ca